The Triumph of the Taliban?

Like his ancestors before him, the Pashtun waits for victory

Can Obama win the war in Afghanistan? I don't think so. Like LBJ before him, he has not described what victory would be as it is sought in Afghanistan. Like Bush before him, he doesn't understand Afghanistan. Afghanistan is a tribal, narco-state with immense corruption and violent warlords. At least Obama has realized this, unlike his predecessor Bush.

Bush wanted to make Jeffersonian democracies in Iraq and Afghanistan. The former being a multi-ethnic state created by Brits to squeeze Iraqi supply lines to India and oil, the latter being a Pashtun dominated tribal throwback that would've filled the Spartans will glee. It's non sequitur to believe that a Representitive government could be formed out of Afghanistan. It truly is. The country has been running the same way since the British first invaded in 1839. Warlords controlling the country side, a King of some sort dealing with foreigners, tribal jirgas within tribes and villages with bandits robbing merchants in the countryside. If only we did what the Angols did after the second time they invaded the country, bribe them and basically let them rot in their own Central Asian isolationism. However, the British did one thing that would come to haunt South Asians aftewards which was acquire Pashtun tribal territories....

Either way, an Afghan democracy is laughable. There's no educated middle class or people who even acknowledge the concept of democracy like we Westerners do. Our sacred religion Democracy shan't replace theirs - Islam.

Obama's new Afghanistan strategy intrigues me. He wishes to involve Iran (the Persians) in Afghanistan. Although Iranians have been linked to funding the Taliban, the Taliban and Al Qaeda dislike the Shi'a regime in Tehran. The Pakistanis are involved of course, they have to be. The Taliban and Al Qaeda (TalQaeda) are attacking Islamabad brazenly and they've sent more than 100,000 troops apparently to battle TalQaeda. Will multilateralism work? Considering that every country including Russia has its' own interest, I doubt that a common consensus other than defeating TalQaeda can work.

Defeating this threat is the difficult part. How can they? Obama and Bush in his latter years tried to bring them to the table, but they believe they're winning so why bother unless NATO/ISAF is considering throwing a going-away party. The Taliban leadership is not in some basement making bombs out of radios in Najaf or Baquba. They cannot be bribed like some Iraqi Sheikh. They are of a different type of make all together. Of course you could try to bribe them to leave them alone but considering there's more than 10,000 individual tribes in Afghanistan... good luck. Considering this war is international in the sense it's in two countries (Afghanistan and Pakistan) and the US isn't technically allowed in Pakistan (this doesn't stop US special forces from going in) this is too hard of a fight to 'win'.

What is victory in Afghanistan? Bush couldn't do it, Obama doesn't know? Here are two options of sweet victory.

1) Basically the status quo. Push back the Taliban somewhat, but allow the same old Afghan 'politics' to continue with the poor getting poorer, or forced to farm heroin. While the police forces and army gets more and more corrupt. With Afghanistan acting as the satrapy for the US government. Keeping troops in Afghanistan for generations battling Taliban and the odd warlord now and then.

2) Let the Talibs 'win'. Allow them to form a government but they'd have to get rid of international Jihad and respect some human rights. The US public would never go for this. You'd get castrated, especially by those women rights groups but of course its the realpolitik needed as of right now considering this situation. Giving the Taliban back their Pashtun homeland is technically a defeat. You'll go down as worse than Nixon. Pakistan might collapse in Islamic revolution and an area from downtown Gaza City to the hovels of Peshawar will be awash with Islamic victory over the infidels, strengthening Islamic jihad around the world and perhaps suffering a blow to your superpower status.

There's another far off option. That's making Afghans richer. In a country without a functioning economy and that heroin is it's biggest money maker. That's really far-fetched. Giving that Central Asian country an economy is like giving Burma a break from ethnic unrest, or the Horn of Africa from general suffering or a Canadian from complaining about the weather. It's just ridiculous to imagine.

I smell Vietnam here. Just after Tet, no clear sign of victory. Even after the 17,000 new troops are sent. What shall they be doing? Hanging around bases while getting shelled by Taliban or out there bribing tribal chiefs and making deals with Taliban brigands. Who knows? The Taliban have time on their side, all they got to do is indoctrinate the next generation in the Afghanistan War.