The Peoples Republic = Second Reich?

I've often thought about it, but it seem experts now believe that burgeoning China now resembles Imperial Germany. No, not the Germany you're familiar with being Nazi Germany. The Germany prior to the First World War, the Second Reich, the German Empire. Well, what are the similarities?

Well, Imperial Germany like China was a new nation forged out of war. Prussia and her allies crushed France and her armies in the Franco-Prussian War not to mention they captured their Emperor Napoleon III. The Peoples Republic has done much better. They were victorious in regards to her opening conflict. It won the Civil War but the Nationalists fled to Taiwan and have been there ever since. Imperial Germany still had to worry about France forming alliances to contain it and threaten a two-front war which is what ultimately happened.

Imperial Germany was the World's second largest economy second only to the continental power of the United States. It had a growing population and huge industrial works in the Rhine valley and the largest army in Europe proper. China today second biggest economy after passing Japan last year, it has huge industrial potential on its coastal areas around Shanghai and Guangzhou and it has the largest army on Earth - yet this army would never be able to defeat say the United States in a conflict. At least, not yet.

However, the most striking resemblance is of course the way this China has began to carry itself. Especially in the wake of American preoccupation with intractable Western Asian conflicts in Mesopotamia and Afghanistan. With both of America's hands and treasure tied in quagmires China has quietly acquired friends, resources and global diplomacy much to the chagrin of the United States. We haven't seen something akin to the Moroccan Crisis of 1907 where Imperial Germany directly challenged France's sphere of influence yet recently Japan and China had a ruckus over maritime territory, it has supported Iran's nuclear ambitions through the UN, it has supported the Burmese government and the Sudanese government despite the fact they both like killing minority ethnicities in their respective countries.

China's neighbours whether they be South Korea, Japan, Vietnam or India both worry and fear her growing power. So, they naturally cling to the other huge Pacific power - the United States of America. It has began nuclear deals with Vietnam, it is trying to sell Japan advances warplanes and has pledged to defend South Korea no matter what not to mention its new found friend in the Indian subcontinent, India itself. Who is China's friend in the region? China? North Korea? If China sought a path which could lead to a new Pacific War it would soon find itself shackled to a corpse like Germany was to Austro-Hungary when the Great War began.

Also, how does China expect to be victorious in a hypothetical conflict with the naval forces of Japan, South Korea and the US? Even if North Korea bombards Seoul and kills millions and Taipei, their reliance on the sea will strangle any attempts to change the global power dynamic via conflict just like how Great Britain starved Germany to submission in 1918.

We shall only truly know if China is Imperial Germany if it produces a crop of leaders resembling Wilhelm II, Ludendorff and Hidenburg. China's leadership will change in 2012 and no doubt it'll be even more belligerent and open about its global ambitions. Its Bismarck (Deng Xiaoping) died long ago and as a result, the People's Republic will suffer as a result of its diplomatic mistake. I for one am not looking forward to the Pacific War.

Africa's Off to a Great Start This Year

Whenever there seems to be a lull in human beings scheming of ways to manipulate and kill one another, Africa always seems to find a way to crash the idea of human harmony and good-will towards all men. Already this month, Ivory Coast seems to be ready to take on the combined forces of France and ECOMOG (aka Nigeria), Sudan will be ripped in two, Egyptian religious violence is peaking while the DRC continues to be keen on the ongoing bloodshed in its eastern provinces. Let's begin shall we?

After a fucked up election where apparently the incumbent Laurent Gbagbo lost to Alassane Outtara but as usual, Africans don't know how to accept political loss. The international community throws a hissy fit and Nigeria and France threaten to invade. Of all the countries you expect to install democracy in the region, Nigeria steps up. A country with a blooming Islamic insurgency and a Ijaw ethnic insurgency as well. Figures. It's a usual north v. south conflict since Outtara got most of his support from the Northern muslims in Ivory Coast. If Kenya is anything to go by, the two leaders will share power or have a fantastic conflict in which we can see Nigeria invade and then impregnate over 1 million Ivorians.

Sudan will be torn asunder and good riddance. In 1956, the British Empire decided to relinquish one of its largest and poorest colonies - the Sudan. The Sudan was one of those ethnic mixes that seem to be quiet common in Africa. An Islamic north and a Pagan/Christian south. As usual, these two forces duked it out. The stakes became even higher after Sudan struck black gold and Chinese and Canadian companies rushed into make millions. While all of this was going on, the Islamic north was prosecuting two genocides against Darfur and against the people of Southern Sudan. Now with two Sudans, we're sure to see renewed violence between the two someday. Egypt doesn't want to see Sudan go and become part of an upper Nile alliance along with Ethiopia and Uganda. Also, South Sudan has the worst neighbours on Earth such as the aforementioned Ethiopia and Uganda along with Kenya, the DRC and the Central African Republic. Welcome to the neighbourhood.

Speaking of the neighbourhood, radical Muslims in Egypt finally have decided to start killing Egyptian Christians. These community of Christians has been around since before the fall of the Roman Empire and their church is amongst the world's oldest despite the Islamic deluge that swallowed North Africa in the 700's after the Great Ummayad Jihads began. Now, this community of some 7-8 million people are Jihadist targets along with their fellow Christians in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq etc. The region that gave the world Christianity is the place where Christianity is receeding the fastest.

Finally, for God's sakes won't somebody do something about the Congo? I mean, millions have died since 1998 and hundreds of thousands are still fleeing rebel army groups. I hear even the Lord's Resistance Army is trying cash in on the fun. I used to think Bangladesh was God's practical joke but the DRC is giving it a run for its money. Along with all the trouble that it gets because of its resources, there maybe be oil under lake Tanganyika.

Africa is off to a great start this year. I just hope everybody is watching.