19th Century Redux

It's hard to predict the events which will unfold in a new and rapidly developing century such as this one. As it is hard for any other. In 1910 did anyone in Britain think that China would become more economically poweful than the British Empire? Or that the Empire would cease to exist all together because it bankrupted itself due to two major wars with Germany? Did anyone in Mexico in 1910 think that the country would have a trillion dollar economy, or that bandits would ever go away (not that they have..)? Did anyone especially in Russia think that it would lose an empire, gain it again based on state property, then lose a quarter of it because of it's own fault? No. History is hard to predict. Which is why I found it funny when I saw reviews of George Friedmans book, "The Next Hundred Years: Forecast for the 21st Century".

He's stated that China will fragment by 2020, Russia and the US will be engaged in a small-cold war, there will be a major financial crisis by the '30s, by the 40's new powers such as Turkey, Poland and Japan(?!) will carve out spheres of influence and by the 50's there'll be a Third World War in which Poland and the US will destroy the evil forces of Japan (again) and Turkey.... then Mexico will try and reconquer it's lost territories in the Western United States by the '80s.

Trippy isn't. I'm not saying it couldn't happen because China won't allow itself to collapse after only 70 years of the CCP Dynasty, or that Russia won't disintergrate because allow the little republics in it like each other or that Poland, Japan and Turkey won't become great powers because the Poles are gutless, the Japanese are infertile and scared of Koreans and the Turks would prefer kicking Greeks and Israelis compared to kicking Arabs and Persians and that Mexicans will always be subserviant to American interests. Things do change. So I (Shoo Thaboy) will give a short little guide to how this century will go down.

This century, the one we're all currently living in will be much like the 19th century. Now, how does that make you feel inside? Maybe if you're American you'll feel a little repulsion forming in your gut making you realize of all the short, dirty wars your descendants will be doing in places from Yemen to Venezuela to Nigeria. No worries though, if you leave after you kill the people you're trying to kill most of the time you'll be alright. Nation-building is for states who can afford it. The way I see it, the 19th century and the 21st century have rising powers and the century will be important to these rising powers. The powers of bygone days who were rising were: The United States of America, Russia, Germany and Japan. The other powers were European and the tiny kingdoms, banana republics and tribal entities were nothing but wog-huts. One could say we'd term this the Third World. The nations which are rising now are China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey and perhaps Russia on a good day. I would not say Poland is one.

The American nationalist who prays to an idol of Reagan in his bedroom is saying, "Those damn Chi-Coms will never be stronger than 'meriKA!" Yes, it is possible. Sooner than you think too. It'd bound to happen one day. Imagine how the British took the new that the US was richer than them. Probably made them question their national virility in the same way the Afghanistan Wars and the later economic prowess of Germany made them too. Check out the article in the New York Times in September 30th 1883 about it. You can feel the glee of the American news editor who placed it in the paper. It took the US 83 years to accomplish this feat. It'll take the Chinese less than 30 apparently according to new stats. I don't believe it, but you never know. Even then, it doesnt mean you'll see the Chinese marching up and down San Francisco.. not that they don't do that already...

Eventually by the middle of the century, new technologies may be discovered in these rising powers such as a cure for herpes or artificial intelligence. Perhaps even a way to sell them better than America can. Scary isn't it? The worst part is that they already outnumber America in two of these nations but it doesn't need to worry about Russia. It'll lose 30 million people by 2050 will the US will leap from 309 million to 439 million people, still more people than Indonesia and Brazil with room to spore. Unlike Indonesia and unlike India who'll gain 500 million more people by then too apparently according to stats unless nuclear war with Pakistan helps bump off a few million.

This is the thing about history, one can easily imagine a future in which:

• A Uighur rebel group allies with the Taliban, Al Qaeda and Laskar E Taiba and declare Jihad on China launching sporadic terrorist attacks in China


• The Indian Prime Minister is killed by a Pakistani affiliated terrorist group and Pakistan is issued an ultimatum to surrender all terrorist responsible for this attack. Pakistan refuses resulting in war. Pakistan nukes India and India kills 30 million Pakistanis.


• Balochistan and Pashtunistan pretty much leave the smoldering heap what was then Pakistan giving the Taliban a safe-base to operate and forcing the US to begin incursions in former Pakistani territory


• The Shanghai Corporation forms a military pact to counter NATO and it's new ally India in Asia


• The Second Great Depression starts after the hysteria caused by the nuclear war caused by India and Pakistan


• Russia annexes Belarus

etc etc etc.

Anything can happen. What IS happening is that communication technologies is shrinking our world much like the telegraph did to theirs less than 200 years ago and that regional powers are fighting to stake their claim over their spheres. Like Russia against Georgia in 2008 and Turkey against the Kurds in Northern Iraq. One would expect to see that. But would one expect to see Indonesia attacking across the Papuan border against rebels there or India invading Nepal to stop total collapse of the Maoist regime there? Again, who knows? But if you're an American soldier signing say after this decade...you're going to have a most busy time. After all, you're the redcoat of this century.