Tuesday, January 6, 2009

The Collapse of the American Empire?: I Hope Not




The British Empire



The American Empire

So, Empires. What are they? Definitions say it's an extensive political entity ruling over other ones or peoples. We have Empires today. We just don't know it.

the US of A is an Empire. Even George Washington liked to call his new nation one when speaking to foreign diplomats. If the conquest of the Middle North America wasn't enough for the American people. The conquest of the Pacific islands of Samoa, Guam and Hawaii. Coupled by Carribean possessions did the job. Finally, the economic clout of America has turned the entire Americas into the US backyard. Russia is an Empire. Even after the collapse of Imperial Russia and the USSR, Russians though dominant in their new country rule over tons of non-Slavic peoples such as Samoyeds, Tartars, Yakuts and others.China is an Empire. The Han ethnic group is well over 1 billion people. But 100 million Chinese are of Hui, Uighur, Tibetan and other ethnic groups. You could also argue that India, Indonesia and others are Empires. You can rule out African nations with lots of minorities because most of the time except in Ghana and Botswana... there isn't an overwhelmingly dominant ethnic group like the Akan or Tswana peoples.

These modern Empires are powers today but we all know and recognize the immense power Rome had. That Chinese dynasties like the Tang and Han had. The Ummayad Caliphate was a biggie too not to mention the millions they converted to Islam. The biggest is the British Empire though. It was said the "Sun never set on the British Empire". 1/4 of the world's people were under British dominion, especially in India and parts of Africa. In fact, the only reasons why these modern states exist today is BECAUSE of the British Empire. Amalgamating conquests is a way of running an Empire on the cheap.

I'd argue the history of the British Empire has 2 before Yorktown, and after Yorktown where the French and American surrounded the British garrison there and forced them to surrender. Thus, ending the American Revolutionary War. This was a huge loss. 1/4 of all Brits at the time were in America. All those taxes.. gone. The Second British Empire had its revenge in India and the Napoleonic Wars. It killed the Tipu Sulta, Tiger of Mysore and seized his kingdom in Southern India. It seized the Cape of South Africa and many other places. In the wake of the American loss it consolidated Canada, established Australia and led the way for the colonization of New Zealand. It met victory in the Opium Wars with China which pushed Indian opium unto millions of Chinese addicts and it met defeat in Afghanistan. For the Empire, " To stop is dangerous, to recede, ruin". The Irish famine and the Indian munity weakened it, it was always weak however. It relied more on collaboraters than any other Empire. Without the people it conquered, it could not function. The conquest of Africa strengthened it, although defeats in South Africa and Sudan hampered it's cause. The Boer War tarnished it's legacy especially but the First World War ruined it.

The Empire was fighting for its survival and lost in Ireland, almost lost in Iraq. It lost a generation of ANZACs in Anatolia and Canadians at Vimy Ridge, Passchendaele, the Somme and Ypres. If the first World War wasn't bad enough. The Second one was. The Second one showed Britain's Asian subjects that, Asians could conquer the White Man. In this case,the Japanese did. It embarassed Britain at Singapore and threatned it's Indian Raj. After World War II, it's most powerful remaining element. India, left to forge a path to "Empire" on its own like America. Britain's Empire ended with the handing of Hong Kong to the Chinese, foes they'd beaten more than 100 years ago in 1997.

When Empire collapse. It's rarely pretty. Most wars of the 20th century are because of collapsing Empires. The collapse of the Ottoman, Austro-Hungarian and Romanov Empires still haunt us to this day in the Middle East, the Balkans and parts of the former Russian Empire. The collapse of the German Hohenzollern one caused the rise of Nazism and Hitler no doubt. The loss of German lands allowed the ferment of resentment to the treaty of Versailles and a Casus Belli for a Second World War. The Ottoman Collapse allowed the rise of the feuding Arab states in the Middle East, the "Jewish Problem" there etc. The Balkan Wars in the 90s are the cause of the Austro-Hungarian collapse effects and the Romanov collapse created Soviet Communism which plagued America for nearly 50 years.

The collapse of the British one causes so many problems. All of British Africa is a mess. Too many tribes, too few resources among them in most countries. The peaceful ones still have terrible colonial economies (eg using resources such as cash crops, tin, oil) to fund GDP. India and it's brother Pakistan have nearly had nuclear gunfights and the Israeli-Palestinian one is a British made conflict.

So.... if one day. America's hegemony collapse like the USSR or faded away like United Kingdom's... how would it affect the world? East Asian countries like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan would be left to their own defenses against a nuclear North Korea and People's Republic of China. It would have to bow to Beijing or band together for protection like a Judah, Israel and Tyre banding together against Assyria. East Asia might go nuclear for protection. The Middle East will be worse. Israel might have to fight an Islamic Egypt, a Ba'athist Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and Fatah and the big-boogie man, Iran. A fight it might not win without nuking Tehran, carpetbombing Cairo and driving Tank brigades into Damascus. A Middle East "Great War" is possible. Iraq might crumble or let Kurdistan mess up the region and a democratic Turkey even more. Europe would have to fend for itself against Russian agression on former Soviet States. A Russian battle for the Crimea where it would not be America fighting, but Britain, France and Turkey again seems likely. The EU would have to become a dominant force for its own survival. Latin America would either become Brazilian, or Venezualan-Cuban. A battle of interests between the two parties may arise. Argentina will band with Brazil but Peru might go with the Leftists.

All these power-struggles have the potential to kill millions and I havent even mentioned the shit which would engulf Pakistan and Afghanistan. I'm not going to. It ain't pretty.

For my sake, and for yours if you live in the West.. i'd hate to see America collapse or fade away. Otherwise, what liberal Empires would replace it?

No comments: